Medium of Contingency2011

"The Medium of Contingency brings a completely new and original perspective to the relationship between the reality of the marketplace and its disassociation with the probabilistic and statistical tools used to model and support it. It utilises the author's extensive experience and research in derivatives pricing, the analysis of the theory of contingent claims and philosophy, and builds on the work of thinkers such as von Mises, Kolmogorov, Shafer and Vovk. This book argues a new way of thinking about the mathematical applications of finance: that market is "real" and relates to contingency, and yet has nothing to do with probability, when the latter is understood in its relation with statistics. Thus, a new appreciation of these relationships need to be developed to effectively apply...